Economists and auto industry analysts agree the 2026 tax refund season could be one of the largest on record—and for Buy Here-Pay Here (BHPH) dealers, that matters more than ever.
According to recent reporting from major financial outlets citing IRS data and tax analysts, refund amounts are expected to rise meaningfully due to a combination of inflation-adjusted tax brackets, credits continuing to normalize after recent legislative changes, and withholding tables that lagged behind income growth.
The result? Millions of taxpayers are projected to receive larger-than-expected tax refunds, with some estimates suggesting average refunds could be hundreds—or even thousands—of dollars higher than in recent years.
“The 2026 tax refund season may see an unprecedented influx of refund dollars as delayed filings and amended returns are processed, potentially surpassing previous years in both volume and value,” according to Financial Express.
For BHPH dealers, large refunds typically mean one thing: sales momentum.
Tax refunds often fuel a surge in vehicle purchases, especially among subprime and near-prime buyers who suddenly have cash available. Many consumers use refunds to make larger down payments, improving deal structure and allowing them to step into vehicles they may not have qualified for months earlier. That influx of buyers can drive a sharp increase in contracts written over a relatively short window. Dealers should order Advantage GPS devices now to be ready for a significant bump in sales
But increased sales velocity also brings increased exposure.
When deals close quickly, the margin for error narrows significantly, increasing the likelihood that overlooked details can compromise portfolio performance.
Vehicles must be delivered with all protections in place, as delayed installations or incomplete back-end processing can increase dealers’ risk. Although many customers initially provide substantial down payments fueled by tax refunds, research indicates these funds often dissipate rapidly, resulting in inconsistent long-term payment patterns.
Often, dealers make a common mistake of taking larger down payments than they typically do, setting customers up for late payments and defaults 60 or 90 days down the road. Avoid this temptation and keep your policies and procedures in place. Empirical analyses of BHPH portfolios underscore that payment behavior can deteriorate in the months following tax season, as customers’ financial circumstances shift once refund windfalls are exhausted.
Tax season is not only a period of increased opportunity but also a time of heightened payment risk, requiring dealers to implement robust risk assessment and monitoring strategies.
That’s where Advantage GPS plays a critical role.
Advantage GPS gives dealers real-time visibility into every financed vehicle during a season when behavior can shift overnight. Dealers can monitor location, movement patterns, and alerts that help identify potential issues early—before payments are missed or vehicles go dark. Sudden long-distance travel, extended inactivity, or signs of tampering often surface first through telematics, giving dealers time to respond proactively rather than react too late.
Tax season is a busy time for dealers, but the portfolio must be closely monitored and repossessions still occur. When recoveries are unavoidable, Advantage GPS shortens timelines, reduces skip-tracing costs, and improves recovery outcomes—helping protect vehicle condition, resale value, and overall portfolio performance. Reducing the workload helps everyone operate more efficiently, and Advantage is there to assist.
What sets Advantage GPS apart is the complete solution: dependable hardware, intuitive software, and US-based customer support that understands the realities of BHPH operations. When portfolios grow quickly and pressure increases, dealers need technology that works consistently and support teams that respond immediately.
